Another brutal ending this week for the stock market. The ECB had their meeting on Thursday and the Fed has their next release this coming Wednesday. The central banks around the globe are converging on policy as they try and unwind their massive balance sheets accumulated over the last several years through their quantitative easing […]
Tag: “Individual Account”
The Inversion is Here!
So much for all that good news surrounding the G-20 meeting and the Jerome Powell speech on being “near neutral” as the stock market got a surprise when the bond market signaled a warning sign that we haven’t seen since 2007. An inversion occurred in the Treasury market where 5YR yields dipped below 2YR yields. […]
90 Days of Nirvana
Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, gave a speech last Wednesday where he hinted that perhaps there would be fewer interest rate increases than the markets were expecting. This caused a massive rally in equities that removed bearish sentiment and gave stocks an impulsive advance that removed the weak technical outlook. However, the cherry […]
Holding The Bag – Part II
A shortened holiday week but warning signs are beginning to flash as the continued slide in oil prices signals that a slowdown in the global economy may be on the way. Below is a chart over the last two years shows that oil is giving back all its gains in a matter of weeks. Oil […]
Holding the Bag
There are no good vibes in the stock market right now. This past earnings season had several companies beat expectations but guide lower on revenue going forward which is a sign that growth is waining in the global economy. Some of the strongest stocks over the last few years have been taken to the woodshed […]
A Critical Week for Stocks
The S&P 500 has re-traced back to a critical line in the sand that will determine if stocks fall and re-test prior lows or begin a new uptrend. The evidence up until Friday was that an impulsive move from the 10/29 low had enough legs into and after the election to make a run at […]
Mission Accomplished
The Fed has marked a top with the end of quantitative easing – don’t expect it to end anytime soon. Economic data is good, unemployment is low and inflation is rising but not enough for the Fed to be alarmed. So what is the Fed doing under Chairman Powell? They are normalizing interest rates that […]
The China Syndrome
Global volatility is picking up as China’s stock market continues to weaken. The world’s second largest economy disappointed on its GDP number this week despite being north of 6%. Throw in some trade tensions and Shanghai’s stock market gets messy. It was only a matter of time before the other developed countries began to push […]
The QE Keg is Beat
The fall in the stock markets this week is a result of the Federal Reserve withdrawing liquidity from the monetary system. Capital markets work based on liquidity and flows. When excess liquidity is pumped into the system it goes into risk assets, like stocks. And now that process is in reverse. Ultra-low interest rates have […]
The Chart Episode
Volatility kicked up last week but there will be more weeks like this as interest rates “normalize” from historically low levels. I have several charts this week as sometimes it is easier just to show a picture. Before throwing in the towel on equities, keep in mind that the VIX volatility index closed the week […]