Blog

Earnings and then the Fed

Earnings season is back and we will see many companies report next week. Generally, companies that can pass through inflationary pressures to their customers should report improved margins. However, sectors such as auto manufacturing are running well below capacity so the supply chain will continue to create issues into next year. So, I think earnings […]

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What Now?

We got a jobs number that was a disappointment on Friday which raises more questions about what the Fed will do at their November meeting. Already on Friday I was seeing talk of a “Dovish Taper” which means the Fed may not be so quick to reduce their bond purchases later this year. With the […]

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Tapering on the Way

The Fed meeting on Wednesday announced what we knew was coming – a change in Fed policy. The details of tapering bond purchases will probably be announced at their November meeting. And most market pundits agree that the policy will be implemented starting in December. As you can see in the chart to the right, […]

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Roller Coaster

The month of September should be an interesting ride as the chart patterns and technicals are warning of a top as the Fed prepares to dial-back their quantitative easing program by tapering (buying less) bonds. The details of this policy change should be revealed at their next meeting (9/22) as inflation numbers are finally forcing […]

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One More High?

Another sharp drop this week may be warning that we are approaching a top in the coming weeks. The rotation of various sectors is getting tired and thinner which means the market is weakening as it pushes higher. It is possible that a top is in place but the price action on Friday rebounded high […]

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Summer Uncertainty

There is a lot to digest in the headlines these days from politics to central banks to inflation and now we are back to the coronavirus and its new delta variant. It all matters to the financial markets but what matters most is that global trade continues to recover and companies are reporting good revenue […]

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Digesting Delta

The coronavirus has a more contagious variant that is spreading but fortunately vaccinations are providing protection against severe reactions to the virus. The concern for markets is that the politicians will shut-down the economy but I think that is a long-shot as economies around the world need to get back to business. The inflation we […]

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A Few Quick Charts

Just a quick note this week as the summertime activities take up more of my time on the weekends. I think everyone is playing catch-up from the COVID summer of 2020 right now. On Wall Street, the economic data is following expectations after a global pandemic – getting better but not totally normal. The only […]

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S&P 500 Futures

Oversold to Overbought

The S&P 500 had its best weekly performance since February (+2%). As I mentioned in last weeks post (Another Fed Hiccup), the S&P was near a bottom after selling off in reaction to the Fed’s latest policy decision mid-month. The rebound continued into the close on Friday and demonstrates the strength of the market amid […]

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