Blog

Triple Double

We finally got the Fed meeting this week where they laid out the policy path for the next several months. The Fed raised 50bps at this meeting and will go the same at the next two meetings while their holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities are scheduled to decline beginning in June at an initial […]

Read More

Cliff Risk

The S&P has traded lower each of the last four weeks and is now back down to trading where we were back in February. However, the last trade on Friday is lower than any closing price since May of 2021 so the markets look to be setting up a tester into a week with a […]

Read More

S&P 500

Tester

An ugly close this week and a warning that a larger pullback may have started. There are a lot of cross-currents right now as a Fed meeting is 10 days away and earnings reports will be very heavy next week. Not to mention inflation, supply chain issues, interest rates, commodity prices and the labor markets. […]

Read More

Big Rally

The S&P 500 has rallied over five hundred points since March 15th and that is a good sign that we will eventually make new highs later this year. However, the S&P is like beginning a pullback to correct this leg higher into next week so there will be a test of the sustainability of this […]

Read More

Big Bottom

After a 15% decline from the January 4th high, it looks as though the invasion of Ukraine, February 24th, marked a bottom in the S&P 500. There was an extreme low in sentiment at that time and technical support in the $420 area held to create a local bottom. The price action these past two […]

Read More

Oil Futures

Mr. Powell’s Wild Ride

The central bank roller coaster will get another push this week as we will get more detail on the unwinding of the Fed’s balance sheet and the trajectory of rate increases. Chairman Powell revealed in Congressional testimony this month that they will increase 0.25% on Wednesday. However, there was not much said about their bond […]

Read More

Putin_USSR

Russian Rubble

Let’s review what happened this week: Ukraine continues to plead for military assistance. The President and an international contingent released 60mm barrels of oil from various strategic petroleum reserves which backfired as the price of oil rose 10% on the news. The President gave the State of the Union address. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified […]

Read More

Ukraine Flag

All Roads Lead to Moscow

A new curveball was thrown at the capital markets this week as Russia invaded Ukraine which means the geopolitical picture is now unstable. Unfortunately, there was no political will to provide direct military support to stop President Putin so the Ukraine will likely fall to Russia in the coming weeks/months. The repercussions for the global […]

Read More

The Week Ahead

I hope everyone is having a good President’s Day and I think many families are using this school holiday to travel and begin the process of putting omicron behind us as we look forward to the Spring months. Hopefully, the throes of the pandemic will not come back to haunt us next winter. There is […]

Read More