Blog

Holiday Turbo-Taper

A little tidbit of information you may have missed on Friday was that the Vice-Chair of the Fed, Rich Clarida, made mention in an appearance that the Fed could accelerate their tapering schedule as inflation is running too damn high. This is a very notable comment as this is the number two person at the […]

Read More

Inflation Fighters Wanted!

Signs of inflation are rising unabated as evidenced by the the consumer and producer price indexes released this week (more below). Prices are rising 6-8% depending on which measure you analyze and most economists think this wave of higher prices will continue into the middle of next year which means this trend may get worse […]

Read More

Road to Recovery

We passed some significant hurdles this week. The Fed is reversing (lightly) their bond purchasing program by tapering their bond purchases by $15B monthly but will retain the size of their balance thereafter – not a big change which was well received by the capital markets. Also, the monthly payroll report for October showed Americans […]

Read More

Earnings and then the Fed

Earnings season is back and we will see many companies report next week. Generally, companies that can pass through inflationary pressures to their customers should report improved margins. However, sectors such as auto manufacturing are running well below capacity so the supply chain will continue to create issues into next year. So, I think earnings […]

Read More

What Now?

We got a jobs number that was a disappointment on Friday which raises more questions about what the Fed will do at their November meeting. Already on Friday I was seeing talk of a “Dovish Taper” which means the Fed may not be so quick to reduce their bond purchases later this year. With the […]

Read More

Tapering on the Way

The Fed meeting on Wednesday announced what we knew was coming – a change in Fed policy. The details of tapering bond purchases will probably be announced at their November meeting. And most market pundits agree that the policy will be implemented starting in December. As you can see in the chart to the right, […]

Read More

Roller Coaster

The month of September should be an interesting ride as the chart patterns and technicals are warning of a top as the Fed prepares to dial-back their quantitative easing program by tapering (buying less) bonds. The details of this policy change should be revealed at their next meeting (9/22) as inflation numbers are finally forcing […]

Read More

One More High?

Another sharp drop this week may be warning that we are approaching a top in the coming weeks. The rotation of various sectors is getting tired and thinner which means the market is weakening as it pushes higher. It is possible that a top is in place but the price action on Friday rebounded high […]

Read More