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10Yr U.S. Treasury Yield Curves

Bond Market Signals

The price action in bonds took an interesting turn this week as yields dropped into a CPI print that showed rising inflation. Expectations were that bond yields would rise on a higher than expected number (which we got) so the drop was a surprise to many. As you can see below, yields rose dramatically starting […]

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S&P 500 Futures

Almost There

Almost there as the S&P 500 looks to be finishing a consolidation period that began in early April. These periods of sideways price action typically foreshadow higher prices and we may have had a good start on Friday. A close above the previous high at 4240 next week will likely kick-off another leg higher and […]

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S&P 500 Futures

Consolidation

Consolidation is what happens when stocks ‘take a break’ before their next move higher and the S&P 500 below has been doing that since early April. The technicals are pointed higher longer-term but there may be one more push lower next week before we close out the month. If you examine the chart below you […]

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10Yr & 30Yr Yield Curves

Inflation Rising

Inflation rising was the theme this week in the markets as CPI & PPI data (see more below) rose sharply indicating inflation is in the pipeline. As the economy emerges from the pandemic not everything is opening at the same pace. This choppy opening means there are shortages and price spikes as demand and supply […]

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S&P 500 Futures

Help Wanted

The help wanted signs are out all over the country as businesses are having difficulty finding workers as the U.S. economy re-opens. The government assistance programs established in the pandemic are responsible as they compensate workers the same as when they were employed. These programs were needed when the pandemic shut-down the economy, however, businesses […]

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S&P 500 Futures

May Day

May Day, the ancient festival of Spring is finally here and so are the first months of emerging from the stifling nature of living through a pandemic. The heart of earnings season began this past week and so far companies are profitable but are signaling that higher inflation is in the pipeline and there are […]

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S&P 500 Index

Trending

Trending right along this week into earnings reports. So far so good and the only hiccup was that the Biden administrated proposed a doubling of capital gains taxes which caused the S&P to plummet mid-day on Thursday. However, you can barely see it on the chart below as the market is trending higher out of […]

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volatility Index - VIX

Earnings Up Next

Earnings are up next for the first quarter which should show signs of the economy re-opening and companies ramping back up to pre-pandemic levels. The bank earnings kicked off this week and we should get near 100 earnings reports next week across various industries. I would expect many companies will beat Q1 of 2020 as […]

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S&P 500 Futures

Mixed Breakout

A mixed breakout has been underway this past week. Although the S&P 500 and DOW are making new highs the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ have lagged. When all four synch-up then there is the potential for an impulsive advance. A pullback may be how they re-align but volatility is making new lows which means large […]

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S&P 500 Futures

Recovery Underway

A recovery is underway as evidenced by the jobs data released for March (more details below). The employment levels have a long way to go but there is now evidence that companies are re-hiring as states loosen restrictions and vaccinations become widespread. These are all good signs that the economy will rebound strongly in the […]

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