Blog

S&P 500 Futures

Mixed Breakout

A mixed breakout has been underway this past week. Although the S&P 500 and DOW are making new highs the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ have lagged. When all four synch-up then there is the potential for an impulsive advance. A pullback may be how they re-align but volatility is making new lows which means large […]

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S&P 500 Futures

Recovery Underway

A recovery is underway as evidenced by the jobs data released for March (more details below). The employment levels have a long way to go but there is now evidence that companies are re-hiring as states loosen restrictions and vaccinations become widespread. These are all good signs that the economy will rebound strongly in the […]

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S&P 500 Futures

Breakout Friday

Breakout Friday confirmed a low on Thursday which should bring us to new highs as Q1 comes to a close. The rally into the final hour was dramatic and foreshadows a run higher into Q2 where the economy will re-open. There has been an active rotation among sectors where value sectors like energy are being […]

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Jerome Powell Cartoon

Stocks and Bonds Redux

The interplay of stocks and bonds continued this week as several central banks released policy statements. Central bankers in Brazil and Turkey raised rates while Norway signaled higher yields. Also, the Bank of Japan is allowing their yields to rise modestly to 0.25% as they have yield curve control. The Fed statement on Wednesday signaled […]

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10Yr & 30Yr Yield Curves

Bull Market

The Bull Market rolled on this week as the pullback to the March 4th low at 3720 was put in the rearview mirror. The S&P didn’t close at a new high this week but the momentum in the stock market looks to continue into next week or longer. The bond market was in the spotlight […]

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Stonk Market

The stonk market put in a short-term top in mid February and has been pulling back for the last three weeks. The rationale has been that inflation and higher interest rates will kill the rally in stocks. However, stocks also like growth and consensus is that a burst of GDP is on the horizon. I […]

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10 Treasury Yields

Stocks and Bonds

Stocks and bonds and their interplay has been muted for many years due to all of the worldwide quantitative easing programs. With muted inflation and a large buying program from the Fed, volatility in the bond complex has been artificially low during this time. A recipe for a sleepy bond trading environment and good for […]

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Space Shuttle

Countdown

The countdown to normalcy is in motion as daily inoculations begin to exceed 2mm daily while the spring months are just weeks away. Savings rates are high among consumers and another round of stimulus checks are on the way which means this money will be spent once Governors across the country re-open the economy. After […]

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Chart of the 30Yr Treasury Yield

Saving for a Sunny Day

Another coronavirus bill passed the Senate early Friday morning which includes more aid for consumers and small businesses to get through the next few months. Where is all this cash going? In the chart below, you can see that the US personal savings rate has jumped sharply as consumers stay at home and build cash […]

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