Blog

Roller Coaster

The month of September should be an interesting ride as the chart patterns and technicals are warning of a top as the Fed prepares to dial-back their quantitative easing program by tapering (buying less) bonds. The details of this policy change should be revealed at their next meeting (9/22) as inflation numbers are finally forcing […]

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One More High?

Another sharp drop this week may be warning that we are approaching a top in the coming weeks. The rotation of various sectors is getting tired and thinner which means the market is weakening as it pushes higher. It is possible that a top is in place but the price action on Friday rebounded high […]

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Summer Uncertainty

There is a lot to digest in the headlines these days from politics to central banks to inflation and now we are back to the coronavirus and its new delta variant. It all matters to the financial markets but what matters most is that global trade continues to recover and companies are reporting good revenue […]

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Digesting Delta

The coronavirus has a more contagious variant that is spreading but fortunately vaccinations are providing protection against severe reactions to the virus. The concern for markets is that the politicians will shut-down the economy but I think that is a long-shot as economies around the world need to get back to business. The inflation we […]

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A Few Quick Charts

Just a quick note this week as the summertime activities take up more of my time on the weekends. I think everyone is playing catch-up from the COVID summer of 2020 right now. On Wall Street, the economic data is following expectations after a global pandemic – getting better but not totally normal. The only […]

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S&P 500 Futures

Oversold to Overbought

The S&P 500 had its best weekly performance since February (+2%). As I mentioned in last weeks post (Another Fed Hiccup), the S&P was near a bottom after selling off in reaction to the Fed’s latest policy decision mid-month. The rebound continued into the close on Friday and demonstrates the strength of the market amid […]

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10Yr Yield Curves

Another Fed Hiccup

The Federal Reserve met on Wednesday and hinted that interest rate rises may happen sooner than expected. The time frame they projected was a 2023 increase but we all know there is no need to wait that long. You would have expected that bond yields would rise in reaction to this news but as you […]

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10Yr U.S. Treasury Yield Curves

Bond Market Signals

The price action in bonds took an interesting turn this week as yields dropped into a CPI print that showed rising inflation. Expectations were that bond yields would rise on a higher than expected number (which we got) so the drop was a surprise to many. As you can see below, yields rose dramatically starting […]

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S&P 500 Futures

Almost There

Almost there as the S&P 500 looks to be finishing a consolidation period that began in early April. These periods of sideways price action typically foreshadow higher prices and we may have had a good start on Friday. A close above the previous high at 4240 next week will likely kick-off another leg higher and […]

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