December Data

Next week is packed with significant economic data as we get the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) before the next Fed policy statement on Wednesday. However, the precursor was the November payroll (jobs) report on Friday which was a healthy +199k jobs created with an unemployment rate of 3.7% and […]

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Schwab Appearance CRWD WDAY

2024 On the Horizon

*I appeared on the Schwab Network this week to discuss some earnings reports and you can see the appearance if you click HERE. Only one more Fed meeting for 2023 later this month and it looks like it will be third meeting in a row with no rate hike. That will certainly signal that this […]

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Paul McCarthy on the Schwab Network

Outlook Negative

Media Appearance: I was on the Schwab Network this week to discuss the earnings of Walt Disney and Warner Brothers Discovery and you can see the hit HERE. It was a relatively uneventful week until we got a speech from Fed Chair Powell on Thursday where he reminded the market that this rate cycle is […]

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Reflex Rally

Quite the market reaction this week as both stock and bond prices rose from oversold levels as three months of decline may have come to a conclusion. The Fed decided to hold off on rate increases this week and did warn of persistent inflation becoming a problem but the market interpreted this as the end […]

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War Bonds

More Bonds for Sale

The next stop on the Fed’s train to lower inflation is this Wednesday where interest rates will stay unchanged. Unfortunately, the inflation data has been sticky including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) that was released on Friday. One more important announcement to watch on Wednesday is the US Treasury quarterly refunding schedule. Their last announcement […]

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US Treasury Bond

Bonds Rule The World

An intense week with a second war raging in Israel which adds to the uncertainty swirling around the financial markets. Will this war be quick? Will it draw in more countries? Will it be drawn out as in the Ukraine? The government of Israel declared war so this is not a conflict or a skirmish […]

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In Search Of…

After four weeks of falling the S&P 500 finally closed higher (slightly) after a better than expected jobs report for August acted as a catalyst for a rebound in Friday’s session. A strong labor market is good for the economy but wages are poised to go higher and that means the Fed has more work […]

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Connecting the Dots

Connecting The Dots

The Fed held their policy meeting on Wednesday and kept rates unchanged which was expected. However, their forward guidance changed significantly when reviewing their dot-plot which is a survey of each voting member’s projection of interest rates. What changed in the dot-plot was a cut in the Fed Funds Rate in 2024 from -100bps to […]

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