And Now We Wait…

The issues in the banking sector remain and this week Treasury Secretary Yellen said in Senate testimony that not all banks would be provided full support for depositors in contradiction to what she said after the Silicon Valley Bank depositor rescue. Not a clear message and it certainly looks like they have no plan which […]

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Credit Cycle

Credit Cycle Looming

We have seen several large banks fail or need a bailout over the last few weeks which means that loan officers will begin to restrict credit by tightening their underwriting standards. Recessionary periods are denoted by a restriction in credit creation so the economy is more likely to slowdown in the coming months. If true, […]

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Silicon Valley Bank

Bank Fallout

After a year of dramatic rate increases, the negative effects are causing stress within the banking system as evidenced by the regulatory takeover of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Friday. The failure of the $209B bank was the second largest in US history. What happened? In many cases, banks will fail due to defaults/losses within […]

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Stock Market

Between Two Pivots

Not a big news week for the markets as the most notable thing was the many Fed Governors on the speaking circuits where some talked tough and others indicated a nearing of a terminal rate. I get the sense that some of them are playing poker with the markets and they will show their cards […]

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Rates Get REAL

February is seasonally not the best time of year for stocks and this year has been no different. The high of the month was on the 2nd and the market has chopped its way lower ever since. We did get a negative catalyst on Friday with the inflation data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) […]

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Technicals and Prices

An uneventful week in the US financial markets as stocks and bonds retrace their advances over the last several weeks. Several Fed Governors were on the speaking circuits this week including Powell who gyrated the market on Tuesday. The CPI/PPI numbers are released next week and will give another progress report on the Fed’s efforts […]

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Fed Reserve Building


The end of the line for rate increases? This was quite a week for the markets as we got over 800 earnings reports, a Fed policy statement and a jobs report that was way better than anyone expected (more below). The pessimism that has permeated governments, central banks and c-suites has been palpable over the […]

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Race Car

Rally Ready?

The stock market is showing signs of life this year we have another hurdle to overcome as the next Fed’s policy statement on Wednesday will be closely watched by Wall Street. Six months ago there was a feel that the Fed might have to march rates to 7% but inflation numbers are abating and the […]

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Breakout or Rollover?

Another inflation read this week as producer prices (more below) show signs of cooling off as we are approach the next Fed policy statement on February 1st. Expectations are now for an increase of 25bps and maybe not much more after that according to a few Fed Governors in recent interviews. We also know that […]

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