The higher than expected inflation data and the decent jobs report for September mean the Fed still has the green light to raise rates into 2023. Unfortunately, despite the sharp rate increases this year, the Fed’s efforts are way late as both the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes indicate inflation has yet to reverse course. […]
Stock Market Blog
Brace for Impact
There was quite a bit of price action this week as the stock market rallied over 6% from Monday to a high on Wednesday that reversed course after the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday (more below). There was hope in the mainstream media that a weak jobs number would cause the Fed to pause […]
Breaking Support
The most significant thing that happened this week was that the Bank of England announced they were buying 30Yr Gilt bonds in a reversal of their recently announced policy to sell bonds and raise interest rates. The most curious thing about the announcement was that it would only last until October 14th. Given the amount […]
In the Crosshairs
The Fed moved 75bps on Wednesday and put the stock and bond markets in the crosshairs as prices plummeted into the close on Friday. The kill-shot for the markets came in the form of projecting 4% Fed funds rate by the end of this year (according to their dot-plot) and that took the markets by […]
Inflation Data Disappoints
A big week on Wall Street as the inflation data (CPI & PPI – more below) dispelled any notion that the Fed will be tapping the brakes on rate hikes at their next policy statement on Wednesday. Some of the Fed Funds Futures were incorporating some probability of a 100bps move this week but I […]
Clarity Ahead?
Next week will be significant for the financial markets as we get the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. Both will be closely watched by the Fed as a proxy for how their interest rate increases have stemmed inflation (or not). Expectations are for another 75bps increase […]
The Hawks are Circling
The entirety of this week hinged on a speech given by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday that sparked a sell-off in the stock markets. The speech was given at an annual conference in Jackson Hole that was concise and to the point regarding inflation and policy. Here is one excerpt that stood out: “History […]
Peak Inflation or Just a Peak?
The concept of peak inflation was an irrelevant concept to the Federal Reserve officials speaking this week as they warned of their resolve to stop inflation – even if it causes a recession. The coming weeks will be significant as to how the capital markets trade as will see the Fed’s balance sheet shrink by […]
Summer Rebound
The dog days of summer are coming to a close and many of you may be traveling to squeeze in some vacation time before the cooler Fall weather begins – already the days are getting shorter. And this Fall will be busy for the capital markets as we will see another more read on inflation […]
Worldwide Inflation
The Fed increased rates 0.75% this week and ditched “forward guidance” as they can no longer talk the market into melting up as inflation runs in the high single-digits for most major economies. The press conference on Wednesday given by Fed Chair Jerome Powell was taken by some to be dovish in that rate increases […]
