This was one of the most data-intensive weeks for the markets. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady amid internal division, while June’s PCE report indicated that inflation is cooling but remains well above target. Additionally, oil prices stabilized following a geopolitical rally, and earnings from five major companies provided concrete data to inform the […]
Market Insights
Crude Awakening
The markets are very choppy as we endure another sharp geopolitical oil shock, the busy stretch of second-quarter earnings season, and a live Fed decision coming up on Wednesday. Brent crude tore through $100 a barrel on escalating Middle East tensions with Iran which so the inflation outlook shows no relief for Fed Chair Warsh […]
Oil’s Two-Way Street
This was a week where a few storylines finally caught up with each other. June’s inflation data confirmed what we already suspected — prices are cooling, but largely because oil got cheaper last month, not because underlying pressures have gone away. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first congressional testimony to make clear he’s in […]
Summer Break
It has been a quiet two weeks as we pass the 4th of July holiday and get into the dog days of summer. Next week we will start earnings season and get a look at how companies fared in Q2 with elevated oil prices. Energy costs will now be a major topic with the Iranian […]
AI-Flation
Oil prices are finally showing signs of retreating as the Iran conflict cools off so expect gas prices to fall in the coming weeks. This will be good for consumers but it may be some time before supply dynamics in the global oil market will return to normal – some say the middle of next […]
Stocks Rally For Nine Weeks
This week delivered one of the more interesting contradictions in recent market history. On Thursday morning, the BEA reported that the PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — rose 3.8% year-over-year in April, the highest reading in nearly two years. That same day, Brent crude sat at $93, down almost 20% from […]
Return Of The Inflation Monster
For the past two months, the conversation has been about oil prices and the blockade. This week, the conversation shifted — because the inflation data finally caught up with the energy data. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand surged 1.4% in April, the largest monthly […]
All At Once
This was one of the most densely packed weeks in recent memory. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% in what will be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair, with four dissents — the most since 1992. Wednesday evening, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon reported Q1 earnings within 80 seconds of […]
Reviewing The Stock Charts
It has been another week of headlines on Wall Street but we are closing out Friday with the expectation that we are very close to a deal with Iran where the Strait of Hormuz will be freely open to shipping traffic. Rather than re-hash the same topics we have seen over and over the last […]
Ceasefire and Gasoline
This was the week the market got what it wanted — a ceasefire. On Monday, President Trump and Iran agreed to a two-week suspension of hostilities, and stocks ripped higher in one of the sharpest single-day rallies of the year. By Friday morning, it was already unraveling. Iran accused the U.S. of three ceasefire violations, […]
