Another big news week in the capital markets as corporate guidance looks weak, the Fed pulled the carpet out from under the market and next week we have a mid-term election that could cause a pivot in energy and spending policies. I see more companies downgrading their outlook on earnings and assuming that there will […]
Stock Market Blog
Earnings Carnage
I made an appearance on the TD Ameritrade Network recently to discuss earnings for American Express and energy company Schlumberger that you can see by clicking HERE. The damage from the Fed’s hawkish policy of interest rate increases is finally showing up in earnings reports. This week we saw earnings from Meta (Facebook), Amazon, Apple […]
Pause The Fed
This week we had many Fed Governors giving speeches warning of multiple rate increases, however, the message flipped on Friday. Nick Timiraos, a reporter at the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) who is known to be the reporter used by the Fed to float policy changes, wrote that 75 basis points would be the raise in […]
Volatility Risk is Brewing
The higher than expected inflation data and the decent jobs report for September mean the Fed still has the green light to raise rates into 2023. Unfortunately, despite the sharp rate increases this year, the Fed’s efforts are way late as both the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes indicate inflation has yet to reverse course. […]
Brace for Impact
There was quite a bit of price action this week as the stock market rallied over 6% from Monday to a high on Wednesday that reversed course after the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday (more below). There was hope in the mainstream media that a weak jobs number would cause the Fed to pause […]
Breaking Support
The most significant thing that happened this week was that the Bank of England announced they were buying 30Yr Gilt bonds in a reversal of their recently announced policy to sell bonds and raise interest rates. The most curious thing about the announcement was that it would only last until October 14th. Given the amount […]
In the Crosshairs
The Fed moved 75bps on Wednesday and put the stock and bond markets in the crosshairs as prices plummeted into the close on Friday. The kill-shot for the markets came in the form of projecting 4% Fed funds rate by the end of this year (according to their dot-plot) and that took the markets by […]
Inflation Data Disappoints
A big week on Wall Street as the inflation data (CPI & PPI – more below) dispelled any notion that the Fed will be tapping the brakes on rate hikes at their next policy statement on Wednesday. Some of the Fed Funds Futures were incorporating some probability of a 100bps move this week but I […]
Clarity Ahead?
Next week will be significant for the financial markets as we get the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. Both will be closely watched by the Fed as a proxy for how their interest rate increases have stemmed inflation (or not). Expectations are for another 75bps increase […]
The Hawks are Circling
The entirety of this week hinged on a speech given by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday that sparked a sell-off in the stock markets. The speech was given at an annual conference in Jackson Hole that was concise and to the point regarding inflation and policy. Here is one excerpt that stood out: “History […]