Stock Market Blog

Bifurcation

Bifurcation

There are a lot of distortions these days between the stock and bond markets as the Fed tries to reverse course after a decade+ of quantitative easing. It is clear now that the the size of the stimulus during the pandemic was a mistake and now they are left with high inflation with a strong […]

Read More

FTX SBF

Crypto Crash

You have probably read about the crash and burn of crypto-currency exchange, FTX, that has lost many billions of dollars. This is a case of theft and fraud. It is clear to me that FTX did not follow any regulatory protocols to protect client assets and that many people will be going to jail. These […]

Read More

Inflation Deflation

CPI Declines

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) data released on Thursday evidenced the rate of change in price increases are cooling off. As you can see in the chart below the highest print was in June (blue line) but the core rate rose from June into September but now are both aligned for lower levels (maybe). However, […]

Read More

SNAFU

SNAFU

Another big news week in the capital markets as corporate guidance looks weak, the Fed pulled the carpet out from under the market and next week we have a mid-term election that could cause a pivot in energy and spending policies. I see more companies downgrading their outlook on earnings and assuming that there will […]

Read More

Federal Reserve Seal

Earnings Carnage

I made an appearance on the TD Ameritrade Network recently to discuss earnings for American Express and energy company Schlumberger that you can see by clicking HERE. The damage from the Fed’s hawkish policy of interest rate increases is finally showing up in earnings reports. This week we saw earnings from Meta (Facebook), Amazon, Apple […]

Read More

Pause The Fed

This week we had many Fed Governors giving speeches warning of multiple rate increases, however, the message flipped on Friday. Nick Timiraos, a reporter at the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) who is known to be the reporter used by the Fed to float policy changes, wrote that 75 basis points would be the raise in […]

Read More

Volatility Risk is Brewing

The higher than expected inflation data and the decent jobs report for September mean the Fed still has the green light to raise rates into 2023. Unfortunately, despite the sharp rate increases this year, the Fed’s efforts are way late as both the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes indicate inflation has yet to reverse course. […]

Read More

Brace for Impact

There was quite a bit of price action this week as the stock market rallied over 6% from Monday to a high on Wednesday that reversed course after the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday (more below). There was hope in the mainstream media that a weak jobs number would cause the Fed to pause […]

Read More

Breaking Support

The most significant thing that happened this week was that the Bank of England announced they were buying 30Yr Gilt bonds in a reversal of their recently announced policy to sell bonds and raise interest rates. The most curious thing about the announcement was that it would only last until October 14th. Given the amount […]

Read More