Stock Market Blog

Earnings Season

Earnings Coming Up!

But first, we got some inflation data this week. In short, the June CPI came in at 3% which was lower than expected and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday came in at 2.6% which was worse than expected. The dynamic between the two inflation measures is interesting. The PPI is “inflation in the […]

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4th of July Fireworks

Watching the Charts…

It has been a quiet couple of weeks but we did get some inflation data on Friday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May and it came in as expected at 2.6% which was no surprise. Next week, we will get the jobs numbers after the July 4th holiday in another shortened […]

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Interest Rate Cuts

Inflation and Interest Rates….

An eventful week for those of us that think Consumer Prices (CPI), Producer Prices (PPI) and the Fed policy statements are exciting. Most of you are turning focus to summer activities so I’ll stick to the important points this week. Also, the calendar looks benign until the next earnings season which doesn’t start up again […]

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Go to the Beach

Go To The Beach

The markets waited all week for Friday’s payroll number which showed +272k jobs were created in May which was well above expectations of +180k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4% but the big picture is that there is no problem with the job market right now. The biggest issue is finding the right workers […]

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Fireworks

Fireworks Season

The next few months will weigh heavily on the financial markets. Economists and portfolio managers will continue to parse inflation and growth data for clues on where interest policy may go and don’t forget that weaker data means a flirtation with a recession. Although a slowdown is what the Fed wants to tame prices, it […]

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Inflation Relief

We have had another round of good earnings reports for Q1 and this week the inflation data finally showed some relieved some anxiety around the forward path of interest rates. The lack of progress in Q1 on inflation caused the markets to backpedal on rate cuts this year. However, the CPI (+3.4%) this week showed […]

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Stagflation

Inflation is for the Stags

“I don’t see the stag, or the ‘flation.” Jay Powell, May 1st, 2024 An eventful week on Wall Street that started out with an announcement by the US Treasury that they will need to borrow more money due to lower than expected tax receipts. They will now need to issue $243B in bonds which is […]

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Wall Street jambalaya

Economic Jambalaya

We will have an eventful upcoming week with the Fed meeting on Wednesday as three months have gone by with little progress on inflation. The Fed’s messaging at the end of last year was wrong (4-6 rate cuts) and it is clear that inflation will take much longer to eradicate without a recession. On Friday, […]

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Top Watch

Top Watch

A lot happened this past week as we saw a war escalate between Israel and Iran and the Fed Chair also conceded on Tuesday that rates may not change in the near-term. A significant admission by Powell and it may have been prompted by commodity prices and oil in particular which should begin to price […]

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