Inflation Relief

We have had another round of good earnings reports for Q1 and this week the inflation data finally showed some relieved some anxiety around the forward path of interest rates. The lack of progress in Q1 on inflation caused the markets to backpedal on rate cuts this year. However, the CPI (+3.4%) this week showed […]

Read More

Stagflation

Inflation is for the Stags

“I don’t see the stag, or the ‘flation.” Jay Powell, May 1st, 2024 An eventful week on Wall Street that started out with an announcement by the US Treasury that they will need to borrow more money due to lower than expected tax receipts. They will now need to issue $243B in bonds which is […]

Read More

Wall Street jambalaya

Economic Jambalaya

We will have an eventful upcoming week with the Fed meeting on Wednesday as three months have gone by with little progress on inflation. The Fed’s messaging at the end of last year was wrong (4-6 rate cuts) and it is clear that inflation will take much longer to eradicate without a recession. On Friday, […]

Read More

Top Watch

Top Watch

A lot happened this past week as we saw a war escalate between Israel and Iran and the Fed Chair also conceded on Tuesday that rates may not change in the near-term. A significant admission by Powell and it may have been prompted by commodity prices and oil in particular which should begin to price […]

Read More

Final Countdown

The Final Countdown

High drama this week as some of the Fed’s committee members are commenting that rate cuts may not be necessary given the stubborn inflation and the strength of the jobs market. The speaking circuits were busy this week and some of the hawkish comments caused a plunge in stocks on Thursday. However, a strong jobs […]

Read More

Inflation

Sick of Inflation?

I haven’t heard inflation discussed so much since I was a kid in the 1970s. The adults talked about it all the time and I knew what inflation was by the time I was eight years old. It was about prices going higher. Unfortunately, this discussion will last a bit longer but there is the […]

Read More

Greens Shoots from Snow

Green Shoots?

We got the next chapter in the inflation saga this week and nothing broke except the 5th metatarsal in my right foot (8+ weeks until I can begin my golf season). March is also starting off on the right foot (except for me) as stocks rallied on Friday and interest rates fell slightly as the […]

Read More

Inflation Monster

The Inflation Monster

It is not easy to tame inflation and we saw evidence of that in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index Price) data that was released this week. To summarize, price declines accelerated for hard goods while price increases accelerated for services. The sticky inflation data caused traders to re-price the first […]

Read More

AI Robot

AI = All-In

A busy week of earnings reports as the market got a break from the economic data and Fed speak. As you can see in the chart below of the S&P 500, the market likes what it is hearing from corporate America. Prices are extending to new highs and are now in overbought territory. However, markets […]

Read More