Stocks and bonds spent the week telling two different stories. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs, with the S&P finishing at 7,820. A day later, the 10-year Treasury yield pushed as high as 5.36%, another new high going back to 2002. The Fed minutes released Wednesday explained why bonds […]
Author: Paul McCarthy
Mr. McCarthy is the President and founder of Kisco Capital.
Clarity Arrives For The Fed
For most of this week, the bond market did the talking. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2002, and traders were betting the Fed would raise rates again as soon as this month. Then two reports changed the conversation. The PCE inflation report came in cooler than expected on Wednesday, and […]
The Bond Market Comes Out Swinging
Last week the Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023. This week, Fed officials made it clear they’re not done. Three regional presidents delivered hawkish remarks in the same week, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, and oil finally showed signs of pulling back. The Fed Is Not Done […]
The Fed Pulls The Trigger
The Fed raised interest rates this week for the first time since 2023. The 25-basis point hike to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% was unanimous at 12-0, a notable shift from July when only three voting members favored an increase. The entire committee now agrees that inflation requires a policy response. The rate decision itself […]
The Bond Vigilantes Are Back
We got some important inflation data this week before the Fed meeting on Wednesday and the results put the FOMC in a corner when it comes to defending against inflation (details below). More economists are now calling for a 0.25% rate increase next week and are calling into question the credibility of the Fed if […]
September Set-Up
No regular edition this week with Monday’s Labor Day holiday, but I didn’t want to let a week go by without comment, so I’m using the pause to lay out what I’m watching for the month ahead. The S&P 500 enters September at a record high — 7,718, up roughly 13% year-to-date after its 27th […]
Nvidia, Inflation and the Fed
This was another week of summer trading, but we did get an earnings report from semiconductor behemoth Nvidia and a speech on Friday from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Also, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was reported on Wednesday at 3.7% (YoY) which is higher than we all wanted. Chairman Warsh’s […]
$90 Oil, a 5% Question Mark
We are in the midst of the summer doldrums which are characterized by lower trading volumes and a lack of market moving data. That should change next week as we get earnings from Nvidia, GDP, Durable Goods Orders and a speech on Friday from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh from the Jackson Hole Symposium. One notable […]
Summer Trading
I made an appearance this week to discuss Cisco earnings on the Schwab Network, you can see the clip HERE. It was a very quiet week on Wall Street as many traders and portfolio managers take vacation and enjoy the summer weather before Labor Day. However, we did get some inflation data this week (more […]
Payrolls Stumble, Earnings Soar
This week’s data told two different stories depending on where you looked. Friday’s jobs report showed the labor market losing steam — a negative payroll print and downward revisions to the prior two months — while the ISM surveys showed manufacturing hiring for the first time in nearly three years, even as services shed jobs. […]
